On Tuesday, a drone attacked the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, resulting in a small fire and marking an escalation in tensions between two different nations. The drone strike was part of a serious increase in Iran’s regional hostilities towards the U.S. and its allies; this event now poses an immediate threat to every U.S. military/postal facility in the region.
Post the attack, numerous U.S. government officials were evacuated, the embassy was closed until further notice, and State Department officials issued a new travel warning.
Drones performed a coordinated double attack at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, before sunrise Tuesday, causing only “limited” fires and very little collateral damage.
Witnesses described hearing two loud explosions and seeing black smoke coming from the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh. The U.S. Embassy compound was located outside of normal U.S. Embassy business hours, therefore, there were no injuries to Americans in or around the embassy. The U.S. Embassy has since warned Americans to not travel to the embassy and to remain close to their homes in the major urban centers to avoid becoming victims of future attacks.
Iran has stepped up its regional military game with multiple attacks across the Gulf region. Iran has been framing these strikes as retaliation for earlier U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian soil. Iran’s IRGC took responsibility for launching “20 drones and three missiles” at a U.S. base in Bahrain, hitting the base’s command facilities. The IRGC’s claims are yet to be verified independently. At the same time, there were also reports of another drone strike that hit a fuel tank in Oman at the Duqm Commercial Port.
Iranian cities, especially Tehran, have continued to experience explosions, and there is an expectation that there will be “some recent damage” at the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, with no expected radioactive fallout, according to the IAEA report. The number of fatalities has been reported to number in the hundreds, primarily occurring in Iran. There are many concerns about the human toll as the damage to the infrastructure will continue to fuel fears of a broader and more protracted war in the region.
In response, the U.S. is likely to offer warnings and evacuations.
The U.S. Reaction
The U.S. government took a swift call to neutralise the risk to personnel stationed throughout the region by rapidly evacuating non-emergency employees along with their families from all U.S. diplomatic posts in several Gulf countries and neighboring states; specifically, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Not only this, but the U.S. suspended its operations at several diplomatic posts and canceled all consular appointments at those posts.
At the same time, an Embassy in Riyadh also sent out a “Shelter in Place” message to the American citizens residing in the cities of Riyadh, Jeddah and Dhahran. It instructed them to refrain from visiting the Embassy until further notice.
Trump’s Statement
President Trump indicated that the U.S. government would respond firmly to the attacks on Americans; however, he did leave some uncertainty regarding the size and length of the U.S. response by suggesting that there would likely be more than one military operation in the future against both Iran and its allies. Therefore, U.S. officials have indicated that while the response will likely be extraordinary, there is no guarantee of a quick resolution to the problem involving Iran’s behavior.
Civilian & economic impact
The global economy reacted negatively with the immediate possibility of disruptions in shipping and the devastation of energy infrastructure; oil prices soared, and the airline industry suspended services and diverted flight paths due to the crisis. Thousands of individuals were left stranded due to the closure and cancellation of flights, while insurance providers and traders have reassessed the risks associated with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other choke points. Countries such as India, which relies heavily on energy imports from the Gulf region, will experience inflationary pressures and potentially increased energy costs if this activity continues.
The continuing human toll of the conflict is extensive. The Red Crescent of Iran has reported that approximately 800 people have died as a result of Israeli and U.S. attacks, while there are six confirmed U.S. service member deaths due to the hostile actions. As a result of Iranian retaliation, ten people have been reported dead in Israel. This number demonstrates that we are moving from targeted military interactions towards a less targeted civilian impact.
The oil commodity market reacted swiftly to this changing state of affairs. According to reports from Reuters and Al Jazeera, crude prices jumped as a response to the potential for key shipping lanes and energy facilities in the Gulf to be targeted. The Strait of Hormuz is a key choke point for global oil supply; any disruption will have ripple effects throughout world markets and subsequently, will affect the price of fuel around the world.
The air travel market will also continue to experience instability for an extended period of time. Several regional airports have intermittently closed, and embassies have suspended operations in some countries. As a result of airline re-routing efforts to avoid the conflict regions, thousands of people are still stranded, and significant cost and logistical issues have been created.
So, where does that leave us?
The short-term direction for the next several days will depend on the U.S. response to the Saudi Arabian bombing. As previously reported, if the U.S. decides to escalate militarily as a response to the bombing, there is every reason to predict that U.S. operations will increase in scope across the Gulf region and possibly beyond.