Battles do not typically remain restricted to battlegrounds; post-war effects spread far beyond the battlefields themselves, and yeah that is what the Middle East lore has become.
Post-war effects often impact economic and social systems,perhaps most specifically this includes the food systems and villager communities. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues its path towards escalation, many agencies around the world are warning of related impacts in the form of an increase in the number of starving people in the world related to the conflict and its resultant humanitarian crisis.
SIGH!
According to the Food Program from the United Nations, if the conflict continues over the next several months, tens of millions of additional people will be forced to enter into acute hunger at an unprecedented rate. Even prior to the fighting happening right now, global food insecurity was already at an alarming rate. Currently, there are approximately 319-320 million people in the world who are experiencing acute food insecurity.
This makes our hearts shatter!
What had once been thought or can be considered as regional unrest is now having negative implications affecting food security globally due to economic/logistics destabilization caused by the conflict and its continuing contributions towards an ever-increasing global crisis with a potential of reaching unprecedented heights!
The second major aspect of this crisis is the rising costs of fuel, food, and shipping. Because food systems are highly interlinked, disruptions in energy supply chains or shipping lanes caused by wars and conflicts will have far-reaching effects on food prices and humanitarian assistance thousands of miles away from where that conflict is taking place.
War disrupts the global food supply chain
The war started between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28 via missile attacks by the US & Israel on Iranian military targets. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US forces in Iraq & Israel, creating tension in the entire Middle East and involving other actors in the region, thus leading to disruption of many critical transportation routes.
And then…as they say..is history.
As a result of these developments, humanitarian logistics are already being adversely affected.
Shipping costs for humanitarian agencies have risen by about eighteen percent since the war began, mostly due to increased fuel costs and longer shipping routes. Many shipments to support humanitarian aid workers will no longer go to their intended destination due to higher shipping costs and delays, leading to delayed delivery of food and other life-sustaining items.
Humanitarian corridors (the logistical paths that facilitate the movement of food and medicine by aid organisations into fragile states) are also disrupted.
This is especially concerning for organisations such as the World Food Programme, which are already financially stretched.
International support for humanitarian assistance has decreased over the past few years, while there continue to be more global crises. The WFP experienced a decrease of about 40 percent in food assistance in several regions worldwide last year due to the continued lack of resources available to support its work. The heightened tensions in the Middle East may expand these effects.
Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
No place has felt the impact of these disruptions as strongly as Gaza, where many people living in the overcrowded areas are hoarding food and essential items due to the lack of supplies during the border closures and military operations.
Humanitarian aid to those living in Gaza has not arrived at the necessary level for several weeks now, according to information from humanitarian agencies. The World Health Organization estimates that 600 aid trucks need to be delivered daily to meet basic humanitarian needs. Yet currently, only 200 trucks are reportedly getting into Gaza each day.
Israel has announced its plans to allow limited access to the Rafah crossing with Egypt, but aid agencies warn that this is very fragile.
Sudan’s Hunger Crisis Grows
Sudan has also experienced severe increases to the crisis caused by global supply chain disruptions and is currently home to one of the largest humanitarian emergencies in the world.
Currently in Sudan, there are more than 21 million individuals who are experiencing acute hunger. They have been affected by months of violence and warfare between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, have lost their livelihood and homes, and access to meals has become nearly impossible due to a lack of infrastructure (such as access roads) to deliver humanitarian assistance.
Humanitarian agencies are warning that the continual disruption in food supplies around the globe (disruptions from worldwide supply routes), the increase in gasoline prices, and the lack of funding will severely hinder any humanitarian assistance.
Increasing Prices and Fragile Supply Chains
The global food system is very susceptible to political and commodity-related shocks. One of the major factors is how the current conflict between the Sudanese government and the RSF has affected the global food system’s supply chains; for example, the conflict has had a ripple effect upon the production of crude oil, shipping insurance prices, fertilizer supplies, and food production.
One of the most concerning effects is the potential disruption of fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important chokepoints for all maritime shipping. Stopping fertilizer exports in that region will reduce fertilizer availability for regions in Africa and Asia as farmers will try to plant their crops during their appropriate planting season.
Less availability of fertilizer will reduce crop yields several months from now and will create a much greater food shortage, in turn causing food prices to increase even more.
The Human Condition Behind the Numbers
Statistics do not clearly depict what happens behind the crisis.
For families who are in situations where they are already vulnerable (refugee camps and farming communities that have been affected by drought), food insecurity results in many parents being forced to make the impossible decision to skip a meal so that they can feed their children. Other examples of this crisis are where families have sold their livestock, have left their land unplanted, and have taken their children out of school to work to help support the family.
Those families that live in poverty or are food insecure and are faced with the increased cost of food globally will feel the greatest burden from the increased global food prices.
A Warning from Humanitarian Agencies
For the World Food Programme and similar humanitarian agencies, there are many warning signs that should concern the international community.
The last five years have seen a three-fold increase in the number of people suffering from hunger, and this has been driven by multiple factors (climate change, pandemic-related events, and armed conflict). The current situation in the Middle East is only going to accelerate this three-fold increase.