The coronavirus spreads incredibly fast, and has an exponential growth rate. We’ve now seen the largest single-day increase in the number of cases in India, which has led to an unprecedented lockdown of many parts of the country. According to data collated by Rukmini S from The Print, this is what is in store for India.
It took India 40 days to reach the first 50 cases, then 5 days to reach 100 cases, 3 days to reach 150 cases and then just two more days to reach 200 cases. It will only go faster from here.
In order to know what to do, we have to look at the examples of Italy and South Korea. While Italy initially had fewer cases, their numbers soon skyrocketed. However, Korea managed to flatten the curve and control the numbers.
Currently, India’s trajectory is on the cusp of exploding upwards, and while strict social distancing measures have been put into place, conservative testing also needs to be heavily implemented.
The WHO has said that there is a 3.4% fatality rate relative to confirmed cases. Going by India’s trajectory, according to one report, India will have almost 9 lakh confirmed cases by the end of May, and over 30,000 deaths.
Ran some numbers modeling the #COVID19 situation in India earlier this week (inspired by @LizSpecht‘s excellent work on doing so for the US).— Mayank Chhabra (@MayankDotCh) March 12, 2020
With 0.5 beds per 1000, India’s entire medical infrastructure will be on its knees by mid/end of May.
(most variables are conservative) pic.twitter.com/kuHJsh9z7o
According to data from 2017, India has just about 0.5 beds per 1000 people. At the current rate of growth, India will be out of hospital beds by early June.
It is estimated that India has around 70,000 ICU beds and 4000 ventilators nationally. If these numbers keep shooting up, our medical system will be overwhelmed. Some Indian states in particular will suffer more, such as Bihar, which has only 1 government hospital bed for every 1 lakh people.
Let’s hope that the government can ensure increased healthcare support for what’s to come.