Just as people were starting to enjoy breezy evenings, gusty winds, cool mornings, and that feeling of “Kya mast mausam hai re baba,” everything has just turned upside down. 

The weather forecasts are saying that Delhi is definitely headed on a direct path to intense summer weather, with temperatures hitting around 40 degrees Celsius by April 15, and could even go up after that.

So, it looks like in one week, Delhi has gone from “pleasant spring energy” to “welcome back, frying pan season.” 

The sudden change has become a talking point because only recently, weather discussions around the city were focused on strong winds, mild afternoons, and leftover relief from western disturbances that brought clouds, rain and cooler conditions through late March and early April. But now, meteorologists say that the comfort window is closing fast.

From Dusty Winds To Direct Sun: What Changed?

According to many forecasts, the sudden temperature rise has been primarily due to the fact that there are currently no active western disturbances affecting northern India. The presence of these systems provides cloud cover, rain and cool air. With no western disturbances over northern India, the skies remain clear, the sun shines strongly through the clouds, and the amount of heat during the day has sharply increased.

Some of the other reasons for the rapid warming are:

• Continued sunshine with very limited cloud cover

• No rain

• Weakened cool winds from the north-west

• Increasingly warm, dry winds from the surface of the ground from week to week

April 13th

The max temperature for Delhi is expected to be around 37°C, at the same time, the min temperature will be around 20°C. 

April 14th

The forecast temperature max is around 3 degrees above our normal average for this time of year.

April 15th

This is what everyone is eyeballing right now. The forecast shows Delhi may hit 40 degrees this day. This will probably be the first major jump in temperature for the summer season.

April 16th

Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be above average temperatures.

April 17th

The forecast shows that Delhi could hit 40°C again, however there are also forecasts indicating it could be 41°C.

Weekend Predictions

Some of the predictions show that with the same dry conditions continuing over the weekend, Delhi may reach 41°C to 42°C.

Once it starts, there’s probably no stopping that heat wave.

What happened to all of that nice weather that we just had?

The last half of March and the first part of April for Delhi were very mild. 

The weather was mild because of the rain, thunderstorms and cool days caused by a western disturbance. Additionally, the first week of the month was fairly tame, when compared against typical expectations for April. 

But nature finally decided to remind us that, “Dilli se hu bhen****.” 

Wait Until You See/Feel The Nights!

And it’s not just the daytime highs continuing to get higher than normal, but the minimum temperatures are doing it too!

We just had a morning low of about 20.2 degrees Celsius, but forecast models now show that we could have lows of 22-25 degrees Celsius by the middle of next week.

That matters because hot nights reduce recovery from daytime heat. If evenings stay warm, people feel more exhausted, sleep quality drops, and homes retain more heat.

So yes, Delhi may soon offer a complete package of hot days, warm nights, and fans working overtime. 

Are We On The Brink of a Heat Wave?

Not quite yet, but the trend seems to be moving us in that direction.

Per the India Meteorological Department’s definitions, there must be at least one of the following conditions met for there to be a heat wave occurring in the Plains.

• Maximum temperature has to be 40 degrees Celsius or above
• Maximum temperature must be more than 4.5 degrees to 6.4 degrees higher than the average maximum normal temperature for that area
• Maximum temperature for at least two days in a row exceeds 40 degrees Celsius in most areas

Severe heat waves are said to occur anytime the maximum temperature breaches average maximum temperature 6.4 degrees Celsius or more.

Forecasts for early April ranged from between 4-7 degrees higher than the average high in the respective areas of Northern India (and will also be potentially classified as conditions of a heat wave if the forecast is consistent).

Delhi Is Not Alone in Rising Temperature!!

The rise in temperature in Delhi will not be just a standalone case in North India. 

Maps that show the weather forecast and computer models are all showing rising temperatures for a large part of northeastern India (i.e., Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and a few of the more western states).

This means that the temperatures in Delhi are just part of a regional weather pattern and not just a single large spike in heat for each area.

Recommendations From Health and Environment Officials

Local officials and Health Officials are working with their communities to remind everyone to exercise caution as the temperature continues to increase.

Some things to keep in mind during this period include:

• Eat/Drink fluids even if you do not feel thirsty
• If at all possible, leave the sun before noon and after 4:00 pm.
• Lightweight clothing for all summer use
• The amount of time spent outside doing high-energy activities during peak heating hours should be reduced.
• Consult the forecast to determine if things have changed.

Particular Caution Should Be Taken with the Following:

• Children
• Seniors
• People with specific medical conditions.

The Delhi Weather Cycle Predictably Turns This Year…

The one unfortunate thing about Delhi weather is that it rarely stays around long enough to build up a good and grounded reputation; last week had mild winds, this week is more like pre-heat oven mode. 

Another thing the residents of Delhi should learn is that….do not always believe the first week of April to determine the weather for days to come.