As of now, the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, has stated that Iran will cease all acts of violence against its neighbours, but it will only do so under very specific terms. This comes in the wake of increasing missile and air raid sirens in all of the Gulf Cooperating Council (GCC) states, and fears that the conflict could potentially have serious effects on the price and availability of oil and natural gas worldwide.

Many international observers are attempting to gain a further understanding of this extremely rapidly moving situation. Therefore, this publication is designed to offer a complete breakdown of what has occurred to date, and how this may affect the rest of the region and the world at large.

But, Why Did The Conflict Begin?

The current escalation of hostilities began on February 28th,2017, as a result of the US and Israeli joint military action against Iran. Multiple reports from various news agencies reported these attacks were directed at Iranian military capabilities as well as strategic military locations in Iran.

Iran has reacted harshly to the attacks from the US by launching retaliatory strikes against US military targets in the Gulf; these missile strikes and drone attacks have raised tensions throughout the Middle East.

There have been numerous deaths since conflict began between Iran and the US-Israeli Alliance. More than 1,300 Iranians have died as a result of US and Israeli airstrikes in Iran over the course of the initial 7 days of combat. In response to Israeli bombing raids inside Lebanon, more than 200 Lebanese citizens have died, and hundreds more have been injured, according to regional health officials.

The escalating hostilities have enlarged into a larger War in Iran, where military action is taking place across an increasingly large geographic area now impacting several countries.

A message from Iran to its neighbouring nations

In what appears to be an effort to de-escalate tensions with Gulf States, President Pezeshkian of Iran has made a conciliatory gesture to nations within the Gulf States to express regret for his nation’s missile strikes against these countries, but has warned these nations that future attacks would continue if attacks originated from their geographical locations.

 “I must apologise on my own behalf and on behalf of Iran to the neighbouring countries that were attacked by Iran. The enemies must take their wish for the surrender of the Iranian people to their graves.” 

Iran subsequently stated that its assaults had been executed primarily or exclusively against American military installations and personnel located in another part of the region, and not toward any of those adjacent nations.

Why Gulf Nations Find Themselves Caught Within The Conflict

Many of the Gulf nations hosting American military infrastructure have been directly impacted by the violence. A number of the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, have their respective territories home to either a US base or some other form of security establishment. 

Additionally, various other countries (e.g., Iraq, Jordan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye) have all become part of the greater geostrategic fracas associated with the war.

The net result of these interrelated developments has made the war more of a regional phenomenon than a two-country (i.e., Iran vs. Israel) event.

Explosions, Air Raid Alerts, And Areas Disrupted Throughout The Gulf

The violence related to the war has already caused some serious disruption to life throughout the Gulf region. Air raid sirens were sounding throughout Bahrain early on Saturday after Iranian missiles targeted the island nation.

Air defense systems within Saudi Arabia intercepted two drones that were approaching the Shaybah oil field, which is one of the country’s vital energy production facilities. Saudi forces also shot down a ballistic missile that was aimed at the Prince Sultan Air Base, which has U.S. military personnel stationed at.

In other parts of the Middle East, there were multiple explosions reported in Dubai. Air defense systems were activated and temporarily closed the world’s busiest international airport.

According to reports, passengers were evacuated to the underground tunnels of the airport after an explosion was overhead. Airlines were temporarily suspended by Emirates until normal operations resumed.

The Role Of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard

While President Pezeshkian has attempted to succeed in being equal with surrounding nations, many experts believe Iran’s military decisions are being made for other reasons.

Regional sources, as cited by Al Jazeera, say the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has significant influence over military actions as well as security operations.

According to a regional source, “The IRGC is now in charge fully, and they will decide whether to attack or not.” 

This means that, ultimately, political leaders may not have complete authority over all of the military decisions made in Iran.

Escalating Conflict and Its Global Economic Consequences

The potential economic ramifications of the recent escalation in fighting are starting to raise concerns, in addition to the immediate security issues arising from the ongoing conflict.

Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has stated he believes further escalation could jeopardize the supply of energy to the entire world. He has gone on record saying that if fighting continues, that gas and oil exports from countries throughout the Gulf could be completely halted in a matter of weeks.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products, and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” he told Financial Times. 

Oil prices had already begun to respond favorably to the effects of this conflict. The index price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) recently exceeded $90 per barrel, reaching its highest level in over two years. Experts have warned that if the conflict should last for an extended period of time, WTI could reach as high as $150 per barrel. Should that happen, it could create a global economic crisis.

Hezbollah has fought against Israeli military operations in the Baalbek mountains in eastern Lebanon and Israeli air attacks against Hezbollah in southern Beirut.

According to reports from the Lebanese Ministry of Health since the inception of this escalation, more than 200 people have been killed, and more than 800 have been injured through airstrikes and artillery shelling on Lebanese territory by Israeli forces.

Because of the ever-increasing risk of escalation to a regional level, regional leaders have begun discussing ways to prevent further escalation.

Recently, Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi defence minister met with General Asim Munir, the Chief of General Staff for the Pakistan Army, in Riyadh. During their meeting, they discussed ongoing Iranian aggression in the region, including Iranian forces currently supporting anti-government forces in Yemen and Syria. As reported by the Saudi Press Agency, there is a mutual defence agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, under which both countries will consider any attack on any of them to be an attack on both of them.  

The ongoing discussions by regional leaders regarding the escalating conflict in the region illustrate the growing concern and fear surrounding the potential for this conflict to escalate into a major regional confrontation.

How the future looks for the world? 

A regional expert in Al Jazeera blogged that in light of Iran’s efforts to create additional regional conflicts, Iran’s calculation has been one of the largest strategic miscalculations in history. The author explained that if instability spreads throughout the Gulf, a regional conflict may lead to a military confrontation between Iran and its Arab neighbours.

Additionally, the current political pressure in the United States is tremendous. According to Al Jazeera’s Heidi Zhou-Castro, there is widespread disapproval of the war. Only about one in four Americans are in favour of the U.S.’s decision to go to war with Iran (and if the war continues, that percentage is likely to drop further).