It’s been more than 40 days since the lockdown has been imposed in India. Since then there’s just one thing that’s been in our heads, when is this going to end. No one has a definite answer to it. 

What’s baffling is that the experts estimate that the number of COVID-19 cases might see a peak between May to August. There are others who estimate that the numbers might rise in June and July.

It is believed that while predictions vary from May to August and keep changing depending on parameters used according to modelling data and the way our cases are increasing currently, it is likely that our case peak can come in June and July. There are many variables to this and an exact prediction isn’t possible.

The graph is currently showing an upwards trend, with the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported in a day having nearly doubled from 1,790 a week ago on April 30 to 3,561 cases on May 7, taking the total number of infected in the country to 52,952 so far. The number of deaths reported from Covid-19 currently is 1,783.  

The number of critical Covid-19 cases, those put on ventilator, needing oxygen support, or undergoing treatment in the intensive care unit has also seen significant increase, with 1.1% of the active Covid-19 cases on ventilators, 3.3% on oxygen support and 4.8% patients in ICUs across India as on May 7, according to health ministry data.

There are currently 180 districts with no new cases in the past week, 180 districts with no new cases in 7-13 days, 164 districts which have not had any new cases in 14-20 days and 136 districts with no new cases since the last 21-28 days. 

13 States/Union Territories, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir UT, Kerala, Ladakh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Odisha which have not reported any case in the last 24 hours. While Daman and Diu, Sikkim, Nagaland and Lakshadweep have not reported a single case till date.

The strategy that the states need to focus on is effective surveillance, contact tracing and early diagnosis to keep a low fatality rate.

Surveillance for Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI)/Influenza Like Illness (ILI) should be intensified in unaffected districts and districts which had not reported cases for the past 14 days which will help to indicate the presence of any possible hidden infection at an early stage, helping in its timely containment.