While we all are desperately waiting for the lockdown to end on 3rd May, the experts fear that what we are experiencing right now is just the first wave of this pandemic. 

The experts have found that there is a second wave of Covid-19 which will be worse than what we are experiencing right now.  

While states like Kerala have been successful in containing the virus and states like Goa and Manipur have been successful in being Coronavirus free states, the officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) and findings by researchers in France have stated that what lockdowns have absorbed is just the first wave of the pandemic.  

The assessment is based on the number of people who appear to have contracted and recovered from the disease. The only way to develop an immunity till the time a vaccine is developed is not more than 2-3%.

According to WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “Early data suggests that a relatively small percentage of the populations may have been infected, even in heavily affected areas.” 

He also said that the worst is yet ahead of us. The estimates were based on detection of antibodies in the regions where blood tests have been carried out. 

The findings are backed by a research uploaded to the French open access journal HAL which estimates that by 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, close to 3.7 million people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. 

Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.  

France accounts for the highest number of infections as well as fatalities after the United States, Spain and Italy. 

The researchers also add that an analysis of hospitalisations and ICU admissions suggest the lockdown had a drastic impact in France. They said:

We find that the basic reproduction number R0 prior to the lockdown was 3.31 (95% CrI: 3.18-3.43). At the national level, the lockdown resulted in a 84% reduction in transmission with the R dropping to 0.52 (95% CrI: 0.50-0.55).

R0 or R naught is the number of people infected by one person carrying the virus. A 95% Crl means there is a 95% probability that a value falls in a particular interval, also called credible interval or Crl. 

The researchers also stated that the National daily ICU admissions have gone from 700 at the end of March to 220 on the 14th of April. If current trends continue, by the 11th of May, we project between 10 and 45 daily ICU admissions.  

With a population of 1.36 billion, this is especially hard for a country like India, which has one doctor for every 1,457 people. France, on average, has 3.2 doctors for every 1,000 people, according to World Bank data. 

Globally, more signs emerged that the lockdowns that began in mid-March may have helped enough for some of these curbs to be relaxed in some areas.